Thursday, February 03, 2005

My Creativity Has Flatlined. Sorry.


Australian Retail Sales DEC (00:30 GMT, 7:30PM EST)
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: A slightly stronger rise in retail sales is expected for the month of December, bucking the otherwise hampered trend in recent months as the pullback in crude oil prices and the rise in employment have reinvigorated spending. Expected to gain 0.8% from a smaller increase of 0.1% in November, retail sales for December will be more reflective of the 29,000 jobs created for the month, and the nearly 10 year high in consumer confidence levels. Despite the sharp monthly rise, the first quarterly decline in four years is expected as the drop in October retail sales and less than expected November sales will carry the bulk of the data.

Previous: November retail sales failed to meet estimates with a slight increase of 0.1% versus an expected 0.6% according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Higher fuel costs dampened consumption, resulting in less hawkish outlook for the 2005 interest rate environment, where rates are expected to remain steady at 5.25%, based on the median forecast of 20 economists by Bloomberg News. Previous expectations were for a rise in rates by June. Spending short falls could be found across the board in department, recreational, and clothing stores, as well as in the prolonged softening of the residential building sector. Posted by Hello

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