Sunday, June 11, 2006

New Week, Fresh Meat... PPI/CPI



We had pulled pork sandwiches at the BBQ Festival at Madison Park and were planning to go to Museum Mile for the free admission night, but we decided that Sunday would be a good taco night for the kids. We didn't have shredded cheese, so we just chopped up some american cheese. Hay simply ate diced tomato and plain soft tortilla from the Taco Kit. I threw in a Jesus rendition simply because the photos I took in the Roman Catholic Church next to my apartment came out very sharp. It's about 10:18pm and I actually watched some NBA finals during dinner; something in the back of my mind is making me apprehensive and a bit irked out. I took some OTC sleeping pills, and will do some fun based reading and preferably fall asleep early.
Looks like stops were initially lifted on the dollar strength front, but Japan CGPI came in well above estimates, capping any early week runaway trains... on the U.S. equity front, some things to consider:
Possible cautious long positions in GLD for a bounce aiming for the $64 figure. On the yearly chart, it's retraced approximately 38.2% from its high (measured from uptrend starting in June '05- June '06 [$42-$72]) which also coincides with its 100 day MA around $60, and somewhat of a support since April. Upside looks like some consolidation at $62, with upside target at 23.6% retracement/50 day MA around $64. A daily close below $60 looks like it'll find support again at $58.

Also, and I guess this might depend heavily on PPI and CPI this week, but the housing sector has a hammer formation(reversal) on long term charts, with TOL, HOV, RYL short interest all above 10%. KBH is coming out with earnings/rev on Thursday, and of course PHM was downgraded, but seems like TOL, HOV, and even RYL have started to shrug off some of their May downside guidances.

GM possibe upside, similar reversal formation, as the Union makes progress with Delphi/GM.

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