Saturday, July 05, 2008

Fundamental + Technicals = LEHMAN Awful

We all know now that the fundamentals of Lehman are quite horrific, and basically FUBARed. This coupled with Thursday's (July 3rd, 2008) straightforward massive downside Volume Spike into the close wiped out the majority of the three day gains and pushed LEH back down below $23. Clearly, this adds up to a TakeUnder, perhaps by Barclays well into the low teens, if not single digits. Barclays in 2007 had already obtained financing for a Takeover in Europe of ABN AMRO, but lost the bid to Fortis/Santander/RBS consortium. Which basically means, LEH is their best target, and the timing is perfect, as Fortis/Sant/RBS are now realizing that they paid far too much for ABN AMRO. Indeed, Barclay's was lucky enough to LOSE the BID on ABN, and can now purchase LEH at a very low price, as the timing is now optimal. And that's that, and we'll see it on Monday. Hope you enjoyed Independence Day, my fellow Americans.

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