Sunday, June 18, 2006

I'll Fucking Drop Dead the Day I See American Kids Wearing Kim Jong IL T-Shirts...

...so the technical play is if you see the poung-sterling and the euro making strong gains against the dollar on Friday, but the Yen is still hovering at the peak of the dollar rally, you'd get a good 'edge', nay, I really fucking solid 'edge' buying Yen against Usd. Fundamentally, yeah, the BOJ simply can't be as 'hawkish' as the ECB or BOE, but net for net, the covariance matrix is well askewed towards an overlysold Yen...

Enter 'Event Risk', which is really eating away at me all weekend. North Korea might launch a missile towards the Bay of Japan(ooooh, fuck you). So the Yen is no longer providing much of an 'edge'. And Japan's Foreign Minister basically said, if a missile lands on Japan soil, even if it has a payload of 'Party Snap', they will regard it as an act of war.

So I heavily doubt North Korea will launch anything, but just the 'publicized thought' of a launch is enough to set stops off, catalyzing Yen weakness...

So all the way on the other side of the world, I'm waiting for the market to open, you could imagine how stupid and well, on edge I am carrying a long Yen position over this tumultous weekend...

...so it's a hot Sunday and I take a stroll along the Hudson River, looking at century old schooners, and ancient naval warfare, what can I do but sip at some scotch and hope that North Korea grows up, and loses that chip on the shoulder bullshit. I got about 25 minutes until I see if some panic stops are set off selling long positions in Yen, because technically, it should be trading down to 113.00, not up towards 116.00.

1 Comments:

At 2:33 PM, Blogger SphericalZoo said...

So much of what you write is so esoteric that I could never dream of understanding it, yet I keep reading.

Someone I know told me--and I've no reason to doubt him--that he saw a kid wearing a Lenin t-shirt. I mean, even Marx renounced Marxism in his twilight years. I'm thinking of opening a phrenology salon...

 

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