The Jungle is Dark but Filled with Diamonds, Willy...

U.S. GDP Final Q4 revised up to 3.8%... Wage Competitors of the World... UNITE... It is high time we get our due after we kept paying and paying... Willy Loman did not die in vain... I walk now ready and vigorous with rigorous and robust quantitative trading strategies...

Double Hay for Double Impact... The Boat is Leaving...

Initial Jobless claims rise this week, bonds up on slower growth prospects, dollar mixed after taking a re-beating from the euro, durable goods drop...need I say more? Need Hayheehoo say more? She remains optimistic in that porcelain girlish manner(post fashionable cynicism of initial liberal arts knowledge intake)... daddy needs to make a decision soon as he remains in limbo... Can he handle seeing the Claremont Preparatory School advertisements on Wall street? Perhaps he can this time around... perhaps he can... the boat is leaving... all aboard... ticket please...um, sir, ticket please...

Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food MoM FEB (11:30 pm GMT 6:30pm EST)

Outlook: 0.0%
Previous: -0.3%

Outlook:
The core CPI rate in metropolitan Tokyo, the national measure of consumer prices is expected to remain steady after the –0.3% decline in the previous month, and the annual drop of -0.5%, putting a brief halt to the deflationary behemoth which has generated 63 consecutive months of price declines in the annual readings. Nonetheless, the Bank of Japan will likely continue with its quantitative easing strategy of keeping interest rates near zero until prices merit a sustainable gain for at least a few consecutive months.

Previous:Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, tumbled another –0.3% in January, prompting policy maker, Atsushi Mizuno to state that the Bank of Japan will abandon its forecast made in October for a possible fiscal year gain of 0.1% in prices. This deterioration comes in the wake of a –0.2% annual downslide in the National Core consumer price index in December as utility pricing continued its deflationary trend in telephone and electricity charges.

4 Fun Filled Events!

1) Mum and I, we went to visit Hudson River briefly before it snowed.
2) We watched dogs play in dog playground.
3) We brought kids to see Aliens of the Deep IMAX 3-d documentary on their day off.
4) I had a banana and peeled it in a peculiar manner.

Kids R' Us

...I come home again today after pegging the consolidation in the Euro/Usd 1.3025-1.3085 to find Hay and George in a scuffle with Dura(the athletic bratty pillow), who's not really that athletic. Turns out Dura said my depression has released the floodgates of bad hygiene and that the penicillin I took for my teeth gave me red bumps around my waist. She then continued to lambaste my paltry existence saying that I was nothing but a washed up trader working the graveyard shift on Wall Street... Hay tried to verbalize her disdain for the ungrateful commentary and had to parry blows with her porcelain fists as Curious leaped upon Dura like a weremonkey... In other news: Douchebag outside on the corner is just gearing up for his worker's strike shouting minimum wage madness towards a concrete wall.

I Know Many Fine Feathered Friends Whose Friendliness Depends On How You Do...

I return home on the 3 Express with a well nourished migraine and 800mg of ibuprofen in my gut to find an overly energetic Curious George watching the men place scaffolding on the building across the street where B to the occasional A rate actors seem to live for a few years at a time. In other news, the MPH(mexicans per household) indicator once again accurately projected the rip roaring 4.7% gain in housing starts for January... I should really throw away all of my hard work and ascetism since the age of inception and that coveted ivy league education, scoop myself a yellow hardhat and some bad manners and some racism and sexism and bigotry and a big blue 'Igloo' lunch box and two cuts of lunch meats and look for some construction work in Scarsdale or Annandale or Queens or Brooklyn if the housing market is that filthy hot... This lone fucker is shouting dumbness outside on Broadway so I'm going to try those earplugs I got from mother on valentine's.

Bollard Might Pull a Greenspan: Some Filler as I Find a Better Picture

Technicals: Kiwi Consolidating at Top of Range

R4: .7624 50% Major Fibo Extention 5/18-12/6
R3: .7463 38.2% Major Fibo Extension 5/18-12/6
R2: .7265 10 Year High
R1: .7202 Bollinger Top 2005 High

S1: .7104 Consolidation of 10&20 Day EMA, former 10 Year Double Top
S2: .6985 100 Daily EMA, Bottom Boundary of Wedge, Sell Break
S3: .6837 50% Minor Fibo retrace 9/8-12/6
S4: .6740 Confluence of 61.8% Minor Fibo retrace 5/18-12/6 and 38.2% Major Fibo 5/18-12/06

After riding on the coattails of widespread USD weakness and printing the 10 year high crescendo of .7266 in early December of 2004, the Kiwi has taken a breather between rounds, meandering in a 300 point swing range and consolidating, as relative strength has found comfort around the mean zone, with the MACD histogram demonstrating the same content. Stochastics are currently residing in the now familiar overbought territory as price action once again hits a brick wall on the upside approaching the .7200 figure bouncing habitually off the top Bollinger Band. Directional movement is showing minimal disparity with ADX continuing to register a paltry 8.00 reading casting doubt on the last discernible trend signals that were approached in mid January. The lack of robust definitive price action has lead us to conservative price targets in the near term support and resistance levels. On the upside, the psychological 10 year high still remains a sumptuous target, as it coincides with the 123.6% Fibo extension if follow through is validated, although the lower highs made since then have waned on the Kiwi, ushering in the less grand monthly double top around .7200 as a more critical figure of price magnetism. Downside estimates will come into play after price action breaks through the short term noise of the 10 and 20 day EMAs and clears the way for the 100 EMA fortress around .6985, which coincides with the bottom trend line of the quarterly wedge, and has been raided three times since the last definable wave of the rally but withstood penetration. Closure of price action below this level should take a very brief pit stop around the 38.2% Minor Fibo level at .6943, and gravitate to the consolidation periods of early November at the 50% Minor Fibo levels .6837.

Key Levels: A close above .7200 will reinvigorate a run to the 10 year high. Downside breakout of quarterly wedge and close below the 100 day EMA will challenge the 38.2% at .6943.

Fundamentals: Strong Job Growth, Weak Retail Sales Give Bollard Mixed Emotions

Although the mighty Euro’s fantastic beating of the greenback supplied the fireworks to the Kiwi’s comeback by the end of the year, its strong set of legs was given to it by a strict Central Bank monetary policy and the opening up of China and her capital markets, erupting a demand shock in Southeast Asia and with strong ripples into Australia and New Zealand. Naturally, New Zealand’s quarterly Jobless Rate fell to a 19 year low with an addition of 33,000 jobs, knocking the unemployment rate down to 3.6% from 3.8% registered in the third quarter. Clearly, signs of impending wage competition and inflation painted the scenery with a 2.5% surge in labor costs, the most brisk pace in over 10 years. Coupled with a 2.7% rise in consumer prices for the year, the possibility of a 25 basis point raise in the March 10th Reserve Bank meeting is not out of sight. Kiwi closed strongly on the day of the release from a low of .7031 to .7124 to the dollar. The front month for the 3 Mo bank- bill futures dropped in price, boosting the yield as high as 6.88%. With that said, although the Kiwi has held onto the gains of the past week despite, a hiccup in the long term uptrend, if not a slowdown might take effect as the rising rates have demonstratively rained on the Retail Sale parade, with a 0.4% decline in December, the first decline in 3 months of previous gains. To attest to the necessity of the six interest rate hikes in 2004 to a four year high of 6.5%, retail sales are still up a solid 8.1% since last year. Notwithstanding the overall strong year for New Zealand, economists are betting on no change in rates for the March 10 meeting. Signs of profit taking on carry trades have also capped upward price action in the Kiwi as Non Resident Bond Holdings for January declined to 62.9% from 64.9%. Reserve Bank Governor Allan Bollard is now shifting focus towards the ‘current momentum of household demand’ with is charging along at such a torrent pace that construction capacity is constrained by worker shortages.

They Got a Name For the Winners in the World, and I Want a Name When I Lose...

Momentarily fearful that this large scale orange gate project would be one of my last linear sequential memories. If you look at the sunlight in the photo, it was a blinding flat cold of mid February along the upper west side in Central Park. My professional life has grinded to an excruciating halt. Some technical analyst just threw a foam ball at my head. What the fuck am I doing? I'm subjected to simply waiting for this double dip recession and paltry job market to go away and kick start the roaring 90's again before I get too old and become nothing but a hard working drummer who lands in the ash can like the rest of them, Willy Loman. I brought mother to a Thai restaurant for Valentine's on 95th street but lacked the appetite to eat at regular hours. Afterwards, we crossed the street and shopped in a Rite Aid for our Valentine gifts. Mother bought me some foam 'earplugs' so I can sleep better during the day when the NYPD/FDNY abuse their sirens with noise pollution. My sweatpants were drenched again as I had them pulled up very high with t-shirt tucked in as I tried to sleep. I get my partial denture in 12 hours. Hay is old enough now to become skeptical of the condition of sentience but she hides it well from Curious.

Some Boredom For You...

Eurozone Industrial Production Dec (5:00 EST 10:00 GMT)

Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: -0.3%

Outlook: December Industrial Production is expected to get a slight boost to 0.6% from last month’s –0.3% reading, as its keystone country of Germany posted gains in December, combined with neighboring France’s industrial production surprising soundly to the upside with a 0.7% gain versus 0.3% median expectations. The rapid sell off in crude oil prices during the period from the October peak has cut corporate energy costs and may stimulate the otherwise reluctant consumer spending in light of the high employment rates in the region, thereby complementing the tone of modest recovery.
Previous: A dip of -0.3% in Eurozone Industrial Production was registered for the month of November as both Germany and Italy posted declines of –1.5% and -0.7% respectively. Although non-durable goods increased to 0.2%, a drop of –0.7% in durable goods, and the crescendo in crude oil prices has attributed to the overall slowdown in the Eurozone since October postponing demand for durables and consumer products, including the sharp decline in transportation and textiles spending in Italy.

Eur Bounces as Jap Data Sends Yen Down Tokyo's Throat...Usd Pukes...

Usd/Jpy plummets back through 38.2 Fibo through the 105.00 figure after brief foray past the 50%. We had a family outing in Central Park to see the 'orange gate things'. I'll put some pictures up a little later. The kids kept jumping up to see if they could touch the orange curtains. You should've seen the smiles on their little faces.

Willy Loman Dead at 89... Biff Still Unemployed and Bitterly Romantic...

As Globalization rears its ugly head, the timely death of Arthur Miller is more appropriate than a dradel at a bar mitvah. I came home to find Hay laying in her beanbag pillow contemplating my favorite play, mimicking coffin posture. She says I'm a hybrid putz between Willy and Biff, and that's why I don't get along with people like Happy. The fucking Lomans. May they rest in peace.

10 Yr. Note Approaches Armaggedon Yields Once Again...

Dura based vida. This pillow, with her shirt on, named 'Dura', has been beating me up since December 04. Taking full advantage of my frail state of being. Today, I delivered her a solid body shot, and she was out on the floor for a 10 count. In other news... Carleton Fiorina was fired from Hewlett Packard and the shares soared... even with her Ivy League degrees and her background, she will now be forced to accept a 35k job because the job market is so utterly sour and employers know it and love it. Yes, a job, not a career. Mcdonalds, I'm not loving it.

You Wouldn't Even Know What Time it Was if You Held it in Your Hand...

I am really reeling in the years... Had a loose decaying tooth pulled out... That last crude oil trade for 2 contracts from average $42 open with a close at $46.30 gave me enough cash to pay down debt and afford my partial denture. Also known as a 'flipper'. No, George, I'm not going to have a dolphin in my mouth. This is triple damage and the cost of recovery: Sinus Program ongoing, Hit my baby toe on threshold of bathroom(radiates to my knee) difficult to walk, and now, loosing teeth...

This is Major Tom to Ground Control... Fibo 50%

Based on Eur/Usd mid Sept to the Jan high...50% Major Fibo is new near term support: 1.2815.

Lockheed Don't Lose That Number...You Might Use it if You Feel Better...

S2: 1.2683 Downside target. Aside from that, I swung a pillow at mother as she was jumping on the bed, and she dodged it by pulling waist inwards with arms spread back like wings. We treated ourselves to tortilla chips (UTZ brand), with cheese and salsa for the grand pigskin game.

You May Still Be Here Tomorrow...But Your Dreams May Not...

I was once like you were now, and I know that it's not easy... your still young, that's your fault... there's so much you have to go through... find a girl, settle down... if you want, you can marry...
look at me, I am old, but I'm happy...

NonFarm Gayrolls 13:30 gmt 250K new McJobs expected...

I stopped giving a shit about this number. Go jerk off, pikers...

You Should See the Smiles On Their Little Faces...

I finally saved up some dough to buy a belated Christmas present for the kids. Curious is a little too young for this advanced chemistry set(ages 11 and up) but Hay will help him out with it and supervise him. I bought it at K-mart for a great bargain. There's actually a K-mart still open on 35th and 8th, where I treated myself to a Taco Bell Express. It was attached to a Dunkin Donuts, which is perhaps one of the more blatant contrasts in scent and brand color coding. Being an 'express' there is a limited selection. I ordered a Pepsi, but the middle eastern guy kept saying Hi-C. I just said 'yes', because I couldn't understand him. Walls were caked in beefy grease, puke beige shaded with donut pictures from the 70's. Dunkin Donut 'maroon' colored tables, where I ate Purple White Yellow Taco Bell consumer product; bean burrito wrapped in a square(they didn't have the handbook for that one I guess), as I sat with the Chemistry Set in a large white bag, excited for my kids. I even moved it closer to me when some bum opened the duct taped glass door. I was the only one eating there. It's getting dark...

I Have Sweatpants On, Pulled Up Very High... I Am Writing to Myself...

Unworldly panic has captured me again. I'm shaking with clammy palms as I type this. I'm through with thinking. I hate trading. I hate the world wide web. Tired of sentences. Feeble. Please, rid me of the human condition. Can't read. Tried to venture outside during daylight hours and after I took this digital photo at a candy store window, I completely froze up in nameless fear. Holy shit, my hands are sweaty. I have sweatpants back on, pulled up very high. I am ruined. I have no serotonin. It's getting dark again. Reduced to pure spinal cord functioning. Writing this out of compulsion, still sentient but losing rationale; acute anxiety I am familiar with but the onset still ravages me every time...I hope my bipolar frequency regresses to the mean, and soon... I beat Death in Jenga again... I am writing to myself.

My Creativity Has Flatlined. Sorry.

Australian Retail Sales DEC (00:30 GMT, 7:30PM EST)
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: A slightly stronger rise in retail sales is expected for the month of December, bucking the otherwise hampered trend in recent months as the pullback in crude oil prices and the rise in employment have reinvigorated spending. Expected to gain 0.8% from a smaller increase of 0.1% in November, retail sales for December will be more reflective of the 29,000 jobs created for the month, and the nearly 10 year high in consumer confidence levels. Despite the sharp monthly rise, the first quarterly decline in four years is expected as the drop in October retail sales and less than expected November sales will carry the bulk of the data.

Previous: November retail sales failed to meet estimates with a slight increase of 0.1% versus an expected 0.6% according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Higher fuel costs dampened consumption, resulting in less hawkish outlook for the 2005 interest rate environment, where rates are expected to remain steady at 5.25%, based on the median forecast of 20 economists by Bloomberg News. Previous expectations were for a rise in rates by June. Spending short falls could be found across the board in department, recreational, and clothing stores, as well as in the prolonged softening of the residential building sector.

I Need a Silver Lining...

If I could give this to my son, then it would have all been worth it... he's taking Claritin-D so the histamines won't bug him. The sad reality is, it's all in my neurotic mentality.

FOMC Rhetoric Will Change the Scene: But For Now, Here's the Technicals...

Long Eur/Usd pre FOMC meeting. Target 20/50 1.3120 MA confluence ushered in as strong break over 10MA, with 1:2 Gann holding as support. Stop at 1.3010 below Major 38.2 Fibo. Don't let German Unemployment shock you, there's been a structural change.